New Year in a new reality

Holiday sales results in footwear and clothing retail show that the worst fears have not come true. As a reminder, before the New Year, 57% of respondents told Deloitte researchers they intended to reduce their shopping spending by more than 15% compared to last year. According to Y-consulting, the average check in January increased by 14,5% compared to the beginning of 2015. "During the holidays, traffic at most stores increased once again – by 3-4% on average across the market, which, given all previous reports indicating a 20% drop in overall traffic, is a very unexpected positive indicator," says Daria Yadernaya, CEO of Y-consulting. "The trend in checks is even more positive – more than 20% compared to the previous year." The expert believes that the decline in outbound tourism had a beneficial effect – more than a third of travelers redirected their spending to domestic shopping. Darya Yadernaya also sees the positive data as a sign that the restructuring of consumer patterns is complete. Russians remain uncertain about the future, but the recognition of the long-term nature of the crisis allows them to accept the new reality more calmly and avoid consumer excesses. "As all the studies show, customers still have money, and if they didn't spend it before, it was mainly because they were afraid of running out of money in the future. Now this awareness is leveling out, and the panic over a deteriorating standard of living is absent, as a result, customers are going shopping," says Darya. The consumer pattern has changed structurally, notes Elena Zhdanova, director of EKS Management Company, which manages the SemYa shopping center. A redistribution of consumer demand has occurred: clothing and footwear sales grew in the mid-price and economy segments. "In the mid-price segment, everything depended on the strength of the brand, whether the company had managed to adjust its pricing and prevent a decline in quality. Those who adapted early are even showing growth. "The mid-price segment and luxury brands have been hit the hardest," commented Elena Zhdanova. Although a rebound in consumer activity is unlikely, the overall stabilization of trends will allow retailers to more accurately plan volumes, delivery times, and align pricing policies.