Results of the retail real estate market for the third quarter of 2013
In the third quarter, the volume of commissioning of new retail space leaves much to be desired, however, this is a traditional situation for the holiday months. There are still few high-quality vacant spaces in Moscow and St. Petersburg, and rental rates remain stable. However, in the future their growth by 5% is possible.
In the regions, the volume of new construction is still high due to the active expansion of retailers in the regions. According to Cushman & Wakefield, in the first three quarters of 2013, high-quality shopping centers appeared in 22 cities of Russia. In particular, in the III quarter 15 new objects with a total area of 292 sq. m, the largest of them is the Pearl Plaza shopping and entertainment center in St. Petersburg (750 thousand sq. m of leasable area).
Moscow
According to the calculations of Welhome, the level of commissioning of retail space in Q2,5 was 35 times lower than in the previous three months. During the period from July to September, only two objects were put into operation in Moscow: the Raikin Plaza shopping center with a leasable area of 7,5 thousand square meters. m and the shopping center "Square" on the Minsk highway with an area of 42,5 thousand, focused on the middle-high segment of buyers. In general, the level of commissioning in Moscow amounted to 20 thousand square meters. m, and this is more than in the same period last year, when only 3 thousand square meters were leased. m of retail space. Despite the low volume of construction in the third quarter, analysts say that the overall performance for this year is quite good, and by the end of the year they have every chance of exceeding the three-year level: “It should be noted that the third quarter is traditionally not distinguished by high the number of new openings falls at the end of the year, - says Tatiana Klyuchinskaya, head of the department of retail space at Jones Lang LaSalle. - So, in the last quarter of this year, we expect the opening of five more shopping centers with a total rental area of more than 100 thousand square meters. The largest of them are the Hudson, Vesna and Reutov Park shopping centers, and the regional scale shopping centers are the Prague shopping center, Lyublinsky Passage shopping center, Izmailovsky shopping center, and MC. If all the announced projects are implemented on time, the volume of commissioning of new space by the end of 2013 will exceed 250 thousand square meters. m, which will be the highest figure for a three-year period. " Next year, the level of commissioning predicted by experts will be 500 thousand square meters. m, although developers declare the volume of commissioning in 1 million sq. m. However, the growth in construction does not affect the level of vacant space: it is still no more than 2,5%. Rental rates have not changed and, according to Cushman & Wakefield, fluctuate between $ 500-4 per sq. M. m per year, while the basic rental rate for a space of 000-100 "squares" in the best shopping centers is $ 200. This year, there has been a tendency for high-quality space in popular shopping centers to rise in price, so experts predict an increase in rental rates of up to 3% in the coming quarters. In the street retail segment, the vacancy rate reaches 800%, and according to Cushman & Wakefield estimates, 5% of street retail operators are represented by clothing and footwear brands. A notable trend was the increase in the terms of lease agreements: if earlier they generally did not exceed 5 months, now they are issued for a period of up to 21 years.
St. Petersburg
In the third quarter, the city on the Neva outstripped Moscow in terms of commissioning volume: according to Jones Lang LaSalle, the level of leased space was 57 thousand square meters. m. Moreover, this figure exceeds the same for all previous years except 2008. During the period from July to September, two shopping centers appeared in St. Petersburg: Pearl Plaza (48 thousand sq. m GLA) and Giant Park (9 thousand sq. . m). As a result, commissioning for all 9 months of this year reached 215 thousand square meters. m, but if the plans of developers for the fourth quarter are fulfilled, the total volume of commissioning will reach 246 thousand square meters. m and will yield only to the record volume of commissioning in 2006. “The previously announced and new projects are actively developing on the St. Petersburg market,” says Anastasia Balmochnykh, Head of Jones Lang LaSalle retail space in St. Petersburg. - Thus, in the third quarter, a permit was obtained for the construction of a super-regional shopping and entertainment center Okhta Mall, which will become the largest facility in the Krasnogvardeisky district of St. Petersburg. Next year, according to our expectations, will become as active in terms of the opening of new shopping centers as this year: the commissioning of about 3 thousand square meters is announced for 2014. m ". The vacancy rate increased, reaching 238%, with vacant space appearing in shopping centers with a weak concept and insufficiently professional management. According to Jones Lang LaSalle experts, the growth of rental rates may occur when the Okhta Mall and Europolis shopping centers, located near the historic center, open in the city. In the meantime, rates remain stable and reach a maximum of $ 6,5 per square meter. m per year.
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