In the first half of 2014. the volume of investments in the purchase of hotels, hotels and retail facilities in Russia decreased by 57%, to $ 1,58 billion, according to the consulting company CBRE. In particular, in the first quarter, investments amounted to $ 635 million, in the second - $ 945 million. Most of the transactions in January-June - 45% - were in office real estate, 34% - in hotels, 18% - in mixed-use complexes, and only 3% - for retail property.
According to estimates by another consulting company in the real estate sector - Cushman & Wakefield - in total at the end of 2014. the volume of investments in Russian commercial real estate may decrease by more than 40% - to $ 5 billion from $ 8,5 billion in 2013. The decline in investment became apparent at the end of 2013, when the pace of the forecast for Russian economic growth changed, says Maxim Sokolov, head of strategic consulting and research at Cushman & Wakefield.
Throughout the whole year, the Ministry of Economic Development several times lowered forecasts for Russia's GDP growth. In December, the ministry hoped that in 2014. Russia's GDP will increase by 2,5%, while earlier growth was forecast at least 3%. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev argued that stagnation awaits the country, which can last all year. Also, investors had an impact on the crisis in Ukraine, Sokolov said.
Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) has an even more pessimistic forecast: the volume of investments in commercial real estate this year may be the lowest in the post-crisis period and will be comparable to the result of 2009, when the volume of investments amounted to $ 3,2 billion. JLL downgraded its investment forecast in commercial real estate from $ 7 billion to $ 3,4 billion at the end of 2014, and so far sees no reason to revise it for the better, says Tom Mundy, head of research at JLL. Investments in 2013 JLL was estimated at 8,2 billion dollars, in 2012. - $ 8,8 billion
Most Western investors were frightened by the sanctions against Russia and took a wait and see attitude, explains Svetlana Kara, managing partner at Capital Global Partners. “Therefore, many deals were either suspended or canceled altogether,” she notes. “However, I expect that the fall in investment in commercial real estate by the end of the year will be about 20%.” In the place of North American and European players, Middle Eastern and Chinese investors may come, says Kara: in the fall, a road-show will take place in Abu Dhabi, at which it will be possible to attract several hundred million dollars to the Russian commercial real estate sector alone.