How the US-China trade war is changing the global footwear market
China's footwear exports are declining. From January to August 2025, exports fell by 2,0% in volume to 6,05 billion pairs and by 8,8% in value to $28,9 billion compared to the same period last year, according to an analytical report by APICCAPS, the Portuguese association of footwear, leather goods, and components manufacturers.
In contrast to this trend, other major Asian footwear-producing countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, and, to a lesser extent, India, are showing growth. Between January and July, these countries saw export value increase by 9,5% to $14,1 billion, 13,6% to €4,2 billion, and 3,7% to €1,4 billion, respectively.
This reflects both the changing structure of China's economy and ongoing trade tensions with the United States.
The EU recorded a 3,2% increase in footwear export value (EUR 29,3 billion). Portugal overtook Italy and Spain in footwear export volume in the first half of 2025. In the first seven months of the year, Portugal's exports reached EUR 1 billion, an increase of 2,4%. In contrast, Spain recorded a 1,9% decrease to EUR 2,1 billion; in Italy, it fell to EUR 5,8 billion (-1,6%). Germany also recorded positive growth: +1,4% to EUR 5,7 billion. Turkey is experiencing difficulties due to the lira devaluation. Turkish exports fell by 14,6% to $612 million.
Between January and July 2025, the United States, the world's largest footwear market, imported 1,3 billion pairs (up 0,4%) worth $16 billion (up 4,6%). These figures indicate a shift by American consumers to more expensive products. Or, more simply, they reflect price increases due to US tariffs.
Brazil is also an interesting example, where footwear imports increased by 28,8% between January and July 2025. According to Abicalçados (the Brazilian footwear industry association), this figure reflects the rise in supplies of cheap Chinese products as a result of the trade war between the US and China.
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