Shoe consumption in the world by 2024 will increase from the current 20 billion pairs to 30 billion. This forecast was announced at the World Footwear Congress, which was held in Rio de Janeiro in November.
The congress was held by the organizers of the world's major shoe exhibitions - Couromoda (Brazil), Micam (Italy), GDS (Germany) and Riva del Garda (Italy), as well as the European Confederation of Shoe Industry CEC and the Italian Footwear Manufacturers Association ANCI.
479 entrepreneurs from 29 countries took part in the Congress. The participants discussed the prospects of the shoe market, new models of production, sales and trends in consumer behavior.
According to Steve Lee, consultant for Steve Lee Associates from the UK, shoe consumption will increase due to the growing population of the Earth, and due to growing wealth. According to forecasts, the population by 2024 will grow to 8 billion people, annual GDP will increase from the current $ 65 000 to $ 105 000, and shoe consumption per capita will increase from current 3 pairs per year to 3,7 pairs.
China has been and remains the dominant player in the shoe market, so the words of Jean Sihua, Honorary President of the Chinese Leather Association at the Congress, were listened with special interest. According to her calculations, in 2010, China produced 13 billion pairs of shoes worth $ 33,7 billion, of which 9,93 billion pairs were exported to 213 countries. One of the main difficulties for Chinese manufacturers is the lack of skilled labor and rising salary costs. Now more than 6 million people work in 20 000 factories. On average, salaries increased by 10-20% over the year, which is why factory owners began to transfer production from the east coast to the interior of the country, where salaries are much lower: for comparison, workers on the coast now receive an average of about $ 300 per month, per Central regions of China - from $ 100 to 150.
Thomas Bata, CEO of Bata Group, noted that customers have become less loyal, less predictable and spend less time choosing shoes, which means that traditional retail needs to change the model of creating customer loyalty. These tasks will be central to Bata in the coming year.
According to the director of marketing for one of the largest shoe companies in Russia Analpa.inc Moscow, Yulia Chursina, next year will be difficult for Russian shoemakers. As well, for the whole Russian business as a whole. No one can predict what the ruble will be in relation to the dollar, which means that for importers of the finished product and components the question remains open whether to raise the price in advance or reduce the volume of production.
From the point of view of orders, Analpa.inc is calm for the future - in the Spring-Summer 2012 season, orders increased by 18% even compared to the very good Spring-Summer 2011 season for the company.
According to forecasts, in retail, clearly “positioned” operators will not suffer, and the rest will give way to network retailers and discounters.