The difficult situation in the Russian economy will not be limited to 2014 year. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth for the 2015 year from 2,3 to 1%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a recession probability of 50% over the next twelve months.
The possibility of introducing new sanctions and a decrease in investment activity with a high degree of probability can drive the Russian economy into a recession - a slight permanent deterioration in economic indicators. Analysts of 28 Russian and Western investment companies surveyed by Bloomberg expect a recession in the next 12 months with a probability of 50%.
“Our June forecast for GDP dynamics indicates that by the end of 2014, the decline will be 0,7%. As new data becomes available, the forecast may be revised, but so far we do not see fundamental grounds for this, ”says Anna Bogdyukevich, analyst at UniCredit Bank. In her opinion, the probability of a recession is 95%.
According to the chief economist of HSBC in Russia, Alexander Morozov, in the first half of this year there was already a technical recession in Russia (a decline for two quarters in a row), respectively, by the end of the whole year, the recession may become full. So far, his official forecast is based on zero growth. The reason is that the balance between consumer demand and investment has not yet been restored, and consumer demand cannot grow for a long time without the required level of investment.
The only hope is for raw materials exports and large construction projects. Rosbank analyst Evgeny Koshelev points to him, who gave the most optimistic assessment of the likelihood of a recession (only 8%). "Fundamentally, mining remains a strong industry, processing of raw materials, retail trade and the footwear industry show good dynamics," the expert said.