The Russian economy will be among the strongest only by 2050

HSBC Bank published the report “Peace in the 2050 Year”, designed to identify the 100 of the largest economies in the world by the middle of the XXI century. Most of the leading economies will be represented by countries that are today in the group of developing countries. According to the forecast, Russia will be able to enter the twenty most powerful economies.

One hundred largest economies are divided into three categories: countries with rapid economic growth (annual growth of more than 5%), countries with growing economies (growth from 3 to 5% per year) and countries showing stability (growth of less than 3% annually). In total, the report identifies 26 of rapidly developing countries, including China, India, Malaysia, Ecuador, as well as some countries of Central Asia and the Middle East. The category of nations with a growing economy includes 43 countries, including countries in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Iraq and Yemen.

By the 2050 year, the Philippines will be able to rapidly develop, taking the 16 place in the top 100. In addition, changes are planned in Latin America: Peru will be able to achieve an average growth of 5,5% per year and occupy the 26 position, while Chile “has every chance of becoming another star in the economic horizon”, taking the 32 position. The report suggests that African countries will leave the “economic darkness”: five of them (Tanzania, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Ghana) are among the fast-growing countries, and four (Nigeria, Morocco, Libya, Cameroon) are in the category of economies, showing growth.

HSBC analysts put Russia in the 15-th place in a hundred countries, classifying it as a country with a growing economy. At the same time, the report notes that the country's able-bodied population will decrease by 31%. Similar problems will be expected for the Eurozone: in Germany, the working population will decrease by 29%, in Portugal and Spain - by 24 and 23%, respectively.

“Judging by the pace with which Russia has developed lately, such a forecast is quite realistic,” agrees Vladimir Zuev, head of the department of international economic organizations and European integration at the HSE. However, he notes that such predictions are fortune-telling, and the main problem is whether, for example, African countries will develop democracy. “This question depends on the behavior of the leading countries, in particular on Russia. Now we do not allow the international community to intervene in Syria, which means that we do not have to wait for democratic changes in this country: this is impossible without intervention, ”the expert said.

“The HSBC publication is conditionally scandalous, since it contradicts two classical forecasts of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank,” said Alexei Krasavin, professor at the Academy of National Economy and Higher School of Economics. On the example of highly specialized moments, he explains that for such a forecast “it is enough to trace where the leading producers place their orders, and usually these are countries with a weak currency and, accordingly, low wages, and to predict the development of these countries in the future due to secondary signs to which and HSBC analysts appeal. ” Regarding the assessment of Russia's place in this rating, “the answer to this can be the fact that after a series of scandals, HSBC is closing its business in our country,” the expert said. About this writes retailer.ru with reference to the newspaper RBC daily.