Colliers International predicts an increase in the average annual vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers to 10%. In the capital's retail real estate market, supply is still significantly higher than demand. In the current economic situation, developers of new shopping center projects have to make significant concessions in order to fill the space and form a quality pool of tenants.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2016, the level of vacancy (in other words, incompleteness, the presence of a large number of free sites) in the shopping centers of Moscow remained stable and amounted to about 8%.
Shopping centers opened at the end of 2014 − 2015 with high vacancy, they are gradually filling up, and the most successful examples are Columbus shopping center (8%), Aviapark shopping center with vacancy by the end of the quarter in 9% and Central Children's Store on Lubyanka (4%).
However, there remain projects with a large share of free space, which are filled inactive and significantly affect the average vacancy rate in high-quality shopping and entertainment centers in Moscow.
“Given the planned commissioning of several large facilities in 2016, the availability of a sufficiently large number of alternative free sites for retailers and the absence of positive trends in the economy (which were forecasted during the second half of 2015), the vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers is likely to be adjusted in side of the increase and may reach 10% by the end of the year, ”comments Veronika Lezhneva, Director of Research at Colliers International in Russia.
The current volume of retail space in professional shopping centers in Moscow, according to Colliers International, is 4 thousand square meters GLA, including specialized shopping centers. The total volume of retail space in Moscow with satellite cities is 058 thousand sq. M GLA.
At 2016, according to developers, in the Moscow region it was announced that about 540 thousand m² of retail space would be opened. Among the key projects of the shopping center expected to open during 2016 are Riga Mall, Riviera, TPS Real Estate projects - Oceania and the shopping center on Khoroshevskoye Shosse, as well as Butovo Mall and 2 The 1st turn of Metropolis.
There is no need to talk about changes in rental rates for retail premises for the first quarter of 2016, since transactions that were closed during the first three months are mainly the result of negotiations of the 2 half of 2015 and correspond to the commercial conditions of this period.
Dynamics of the average annual vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers