Cushman & Wakefield has published a new report "Shopping Centers in Europe". Despite expectations that the volume of new retail space commissioned in 2012 will reach 6,9 million sq. M. m, and this will exceed the figure of 2011, the mood of tenants and developers is cautious. At the same time, in a number of countries - Italy, France, Portugal, Czechoslovakia and Romania - the postponement of the opening of shopping centers has been announced, and this may affect the results of the year: the real volume of the commissioned space by the end of the year may be less than planned.
In the first half of 2012, 71 shopping centers were opened, of which 53 are located in Central and Eastern Europe and 18 in Western Europe. The largest shopping center opened in the first quarter of 2012 was OZ MALL in Krasnodar (169 sq. M). The largest centers in Western Europe are Boulevard Berlin in Berlin (000 sq. M), Gran Plaza 64 in Madrid (000 sq. M), Conca d'Oro in Palermo (Italy) (2 sq. M) and Confluence in Leone (France) (60 sq. M).
Russia continues to lead the European rating in terms of both open and planned retail space. In the first half of the year, about 725 square meters were commissioned in Russia. m, and now the total supply of retail real estate is 000 million square meters. meters. Russia accounts for 15,4% of the retail space planned for opening in the second half of 21 and 2012. It is expected that during this time 2013 million square meters will be built. m, which is 2,1% increase in supply, and Russia will become the second largest market for European shopping centers after France, ahead of the UK.
Lada Belaychuk, Deputy Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield, comments: “Russia is not only the largest country in Europe in terms of territory and population, but also the largest consumer market: Russia is the 4th in terms of retail turnover in Europe (after France, Germany, Great Britain) and one of the few countries with growing consumption. Therefore, its leadership in the field of retail real estate is predictable, we still lack both traditional shopping centers and new formats that are successful in the world. "
In Turkey, in the first half of the year, more than 250 square meters were opened. m of new retail space. 000 million sq. M is under construction. meters - 1,6% of the total European volume. If all projects under construction are completed on time, the supply of shopping centers in Turkey will increase by 16% between 25 July 1 and 2012 December 31. In Istanbul alone, by the end of 2013, it is planned to commission more than 2013 sq. m.
In Poland, 9 new shopping centers were opened and 5 shopping centers expanded, which led to an increase in supply by 235 square meters. m in the first half of 000. And although not a single shopping center was opened in the capital, Warsaw and its environs should see an increase in the supply of new areas in 2012/2012.
France and Italy continue to lead in terms of retail space under construction. However, in Italy, the opening of several projects was postponed to next year, which was reflected in a decrease in the forecast for the volume of new supply in 2012 from 400 sq. m up to 000 square meters m. In Spain, the largest facility is Puerto Venecia in Zaragoza, which accounts for almost 284% of the volume of new construction. And in the UK this year, the commissioning of space will reach a historically low level, a slight increase is expected only in 000.
Investment activity decreased in the first half of 2012 - only 12 billion euros (for comparison, in 2011 in the first half of the year investments in retail real estate reached 21 billion euros, in the second half - 19 billion euros). Retail real estate accounts for 21% of all investments, which is lower than last year's figures. So, in 2011 in the first half of the year, investments in retail real estate accounted for 36% of the total volume, in the second half of the year - 28%. Most of the deals are in the UK and Germany, but even here there is a decline in activity.
Mike Rodda, partner and head of retail real estate investment in EMEA says: “Typically, retail real estate accounts for 30% of the total pie, but in the early recovery phase, we saw retail real estate increase to 40%. However, recently we began to observe again a decrease in investor interest in this asset. The lack of capital has hit the big deals especially hard, but there is still demand for good projects and we expect several big deals to close by the end of the year. ”