Following the Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank began to develop a shock scenario for the development of the Russian economy. True, the Central Bank is going to put in its forecast a truly shock price - $ 60. The reaction of the main economic indicators to it is still unknown. According to the consensus forecast of eight investment banks, the ruble in this case will depreciate by about 20% - up to 48,4 rubles / dollar.
At this rate, prices for consumer goods, in particular, for sports shoes, according to experts, will rise by 10–20%. Such a scenario will certainly be disastrous for Russian business, says Tikhon Smykov, CEO of Inventive Retail Group. “Ruble prices will react with a lag of at least three months, demand will decrease significantly, rental costs, often denominated in dollars or euros, will soar, many retailers and developers will go bankrupt,” he predicts. If the dollar rises to 48 rubles, then Nike sneakers popular among young people, for example, which now cost an average of 4,5 thousand rubles, will rise in price by 10-20% - up to 5-5,5 thousand, believes Daria Yadernaya, managing director Esper Group. But if the rate rises in the near future, she clarified.