The luxury goods market contracted by 8% in 2014, and by the end of 2015 it is expected to decline to 20% in absolute terms. Price increases ranged from 20% to 70% for the most fashionable luxury brands. The reduction of the market for luxury goods will be 10-20%, the market for middle-price segment goods - 35-45%, and the market for cheap goods - 6-10%. Experts expect the luxury market to recover in 2016, while, according to market forecasts until 2019 (for comparison, 2009 is taken), sales of accessories (143%), watches and jewelry (97%), wine and spirits (94%) are expected to grow. ), designer clothes (68%). According to experts, the segment of luxury accessories and footwear has the greatest potential for sales growth, which is associated with the Russian specifics of “fanatical love for shoes”. These figures were presented at the "La Jounrée Luxe" luxury conference of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which took place on Tuesday, September 22, in the conference hall of the Moscow Ararat Park Hayat hotel. The conference brought together over 150 participants, who during the event discussed the situation in the Russian luxury goods market in modern conditions.
“In the luxury sector, it is impossible to talk about any import substitution for obvious reasons. Due to what happened with the ruble, goods in Russia have become cheaper despite the fact that there is no VAT refund practice in the country, as, for example, in EU countries. And people began to buy in Russia what they used to buy in London or Milan, ”said Pavel Shinsky, Director General of the Franco-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry at the opening of the conference.
“Lux has a fairly stable position, that is, if we say that the middle price segment is decreasing by 35%, then in the luxury segment the reduction is now about 10%. We can say that the luxury market will suffer to a lesser extent, that the main blow will be on the market of average prices. The share of the luxury segment in absolute terms will decline by 10%, in the worst case - by 20% at the end of the current year. Consumer activity has dropped sharply, the flow of buyers in shopping centers has decreased from 20 to 49%, street retail has decreased by 60%, "- said Anna Lebsak-Kleimans, CEO of Fashion Consulting Group at the conference.
According to Anna Lebsak-Kleimans, in the first half of 2015, imports of textile and knitwear decreased by 1,7 times, and footwear - by 1,9 times. “Such a decrease in imports is an indirect reflection of the forecasts of the retailers themselves regarding the future,” she stated.
However, there is growth potential within the Russian market and it consists in a decrease in cross-border purchases on the Internet, as well as a decrease in tourist flow from Russia and a corresponding decrease in purchases abroad (according to the results of the first half of 2015, 33,8 and 31,3%, respectively).
Vladimir Biryukov, Deloitte CIS partner, presented the positions of the Russian market in the world. “According to the results of 2014, the Russian luxury market fell by 1 position and now occupies 11th place relative to other countries, in 2014 its volume was estimated at 4,6 billion euros, while Moscow accounts for 3,5 billion euros. For comparison: the Russian market is equal to 1/10 of the American luxury market, and the Moscow luxury market is 3 times smaller than the luxury market in Paris, ”the expert said.
This concentration of the market for luxury goods in Moscow, as well as in St. Petersburg, was noted by all the speakers. The last 5 years there has been a centrifugal trend in connection with the development of the Russian regions, but during the crisis this trend stopped. Now Russian regions account for 25% of sales; the cities providing this volume include Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don, Novosibirsk, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Chelyabinsk, Kazan, Krasnoyarsk, Perm, Volgograd, Ufa, Omsk, Voronezh.
Among other topics discussed at the conference are forecasts for the future, portraits of the consumer and his point of perception of communications, recommendations for business development in a crisis. Presentations on these topics were made by Lyudmila Bartenkova, Director of Client Relations at Comcon, Daria Yadernaya, Managing Director of Esper Group, Julia Bevzenko, Director General of Julia Bevzenko Consulting Agency, Andrey Milekhin, President of ROMIR Research Holding, Dmitry Dudinsky, Founder and CEO of the Agency D2 Marketing Solutions.
The business speakers were Julia Eremina, CEO of Carrera y Carrera in Russia, Juliana Gordon, CEO of Aizel.ru, Jacques von Pellier, CEO and Creative Director of Rocket and Pobeda, Svetlana Orlova, independent expert, and Formerly director of the Bosco shopping gallery, Konstantin Andrikopoulos, development director of Bosco Di Ciliegi, and Andrei Kalinin, general director of the Business Aviation club.
The market for leasing and buying private jets is a guideline for other sectors for several reasons. According to Andrei Kalinin, the demand for private jets for the year decreased by more than 30%, and the base of potential customers also decreased. “Before the crisis, about 6 thousand people in Russia could use private jets, now about 4 thousand people.” According to him, flights to Nice continue to grow, but the number of flights to Dubai, London and the USA has greatly decreased, as customers switched to flights with the first class of regular flights.