By 2025, the number of people employed in the economic activity of the population of the Russian Federation may decrease by 12,9%, and most of all new workers will be required in trade, finance and in the civil service. The newspaper "Kommersant" writes about this with reference to the report of the laboratory for forecasting labor resources of the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) RAS.
Now in the structure of employment by type of economic activity, the largest share (18,4%) is occupied by the wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing (14,8-15%), and agriculture (9,2%). But by the 2025 year, a significant increase in the non-productive sector will take place: the share of the employed population in wholesale and retail trade will increase to 20-22,5%, financial activity from 1,7 to 2,2-2,4%, in state administration and military security, from 5,8 to 6,7-6,9% , in the hotel and restaurant segments - from 1,9 to 2,3%.
By the 2025 year, the working-age population will be reduced by 18,5-21%, while the proportion of working pensioners will increase significantly (from 5,3 to 6,6 million people). As a result, foreign labor migrants will be attracted more and more to work in the industrial sector (and in the service sector) - from 2,5 to 3,5 million people in the 2025 year. This is about 7% of the total employed population in the 2025 year.
As follows from the calculations of the INP RAS, due to the increase in the number of people employed in public administration, the Russian government will at least not succeed in the current strategy for reducing the number of civil servants. Recall that according to the results of 2013, the number of federal civil servants in Russia should be reduced by 20%.
The reduction of officials is envisaged by the decree "On Optimizing the Number of Federal State Civil Servants and Employees of Federal State Bodies", which was signed by Russian President D. Medvedev.
The forecasts of the INP RAS show which sectors of the economy will have the largest number of laid-offs in the next decade. According to the calculations of INP RAS, in the manufacturing sector with a negative forecast (reduction of the population employed in economic activities by 14,7%) by 2025, the number will be reduced by a third, and every fifth employee will leave the education sector. The energy sector and utilities will leave the seventh of the employees employed in them.