INFOLine: “You can forget about the restoration of population income until 2022”

In the framework of the Russian Retail Week-2017 business forum, which was recently held in Moscow, INFOLine analysts evaluated the development of Russian retail and the prospects for the retail business.

According to the agency, in 2016 the retail trade turnover (RTO) decreased by 4,6%, in physical terms - to 28317,3 billion rubles. RTO Food last year decreased in physical terms by 5% (to 13751,8 billion rubles), and RTO Non-Food - by 4,2% to 14565,5 billion rubles.

“Since May 2014, the physical volume of food consumption has been decreasing, that is, the decline lasts 36 months in a row! However, the companies' revenues grew due to inflation. However, given low inflation, this support will no longer exist with the rise in prices. And a completely new period awaits us. The situation is similar in Non-Food retail, - explained Ivan Fedyakov, CEO of INFOLine. - The buying behavior has changed dramatically: people are trying to save their money. So, 5,5 trillion. Russians put aside rubles in banks, and did not spend. In 2016 there was a turning point - the growth of lending to the population. But this is not related to consumer lending: mortgages were issued every 3 minutes. In fact, this is a good trend, since mortgage lending supports the construction market, and then it is consumer goods, baby products, etc. This is a positive trend that will help our country develop. Unfortunately, now there is a shortage of effective demand in this part as well: sales volumes have decreased by more than 30% since the beginning of the year - developers do not have enough effective demand ”. 

According to INFOLine estimates, until 2022, one should not expect a recovery in the incomes of the Russian population until the period when the crisis has come. Analysts are confident that this can only happen with serious reforms. “Of course, the reforms should be associated with investment activity, increased productivity,” added Ivan Fedyakov.

INFOLine analysts presented the results of the annual ranking of the largest retailers "INFOLine Retail Russia TOP-100. 2017 trends. Forecast until 2019". At the end of 2016, the rating included chains with a net revenue of more than 13 billion rubles, their total revenue exceeded 7 trillion rubles, which corresponds to 33% of the Russian RTO.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of INFOLine-Analytic, despite the negative trends in the retail market, the largest retail chains are increasing their operating and financial performance, at the end of 2016 they increased their revenue by 15%.

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The analyst noted that by 2015, the Russian market for technology, competition - in many respects overtook most developed markets. Fashion retail: today, international players are aggressively competing in the Russian market.

As a positive example on the online market in the Fashion retail segment, INFOLine analysts cited Wildberries. “At the end of 2016, the company became the leader among online stores, without significant external money, and we are waiting for how the company will develop further, since it operates in Kazakhstan and Belarus. Considering that the founder of the business is at the helm, who thinks more about the buyer and less about publicity, ”explained Ivan Fedyakov, General Director of INFOLine.

Also among the fast-growing retail chains the company Detsky Mir was noted, which, according to analysts, has become a highly efficient retail business. According to Mikhail Burmistrov, “this is, of course, a serious success, since we are critically short of public companies in Russian retail”.