At "Russian Breakfast" calculated indicators of investment in the 2012 year
On March 7, within the framework of the MIPIM exhibition, the 16th Russian Breakfast was held, organized by the Impress Media Publishing House with the support of the general partner Jones Lang LaSalle, as well as Raven Russia, Goltsblat BLP, PSN Group and O1 Properties. This year the event was attended by an unprecedented number of participants for this format - more than 300 representatives of investment, development, consulting, legal companies and other companies. A feature of the "Russian Breakfast" was the possibility of an interactive survey of all its participants on topical issues for the industry.
The event opened with a documentary about the largest investment transactions 2011. The sale of the National Hotel, the Ritz Carlton Hotel, the Galeria shopping center, the Lesnaya Plaza business center and other significant investment transactions were commented on by leading experts in the commercial real estate market. Immediately after the film, the event participants were asked to answer the question: will the volume of investments in 2012 be higher than in 2011? As a result of the survey, it turned out that exactly half of the participants believe that 2012 will be a good year to invest.
The first session of the Russian Breakfast presented the views of investment companies on the development of the Russian real estate market. According to Dmitry Mints, O1 Properties, in 2012 one should hardly expect the same volume of investments in this sector as last year. “This number of transactions was partly due to the fact that in 2011 the owners, who had been waiting for acceptable prices since 2008, waited for them and left the projects. The same owners who were not ready to sell at these rates due to their insignificant change are unlikely to do so in 2012 either. Ekaterina Konstantinova, Renaissance Capital, agreed with this opinion: “In 2011, rates on commercial real estate began to recover, and for investors the risk premium was sufficient to invest in real estate. Whether there will be such interest in 2012 is an intrigue. On the one hand, after August 2011, when the stock market fell, Russia lost some in the eyes of Western investors, on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators are positive (GDP, unemployment rate, etc.), that is, fundamentally, Russia remains an interesting market for investment ".
Holger Muller, PWC, reminded the audience that, in addition to all the above factors, investors are interested in actually high-quality facilities, which are very lacking in Russia. “After Dmitry Mints bought up half of the assets, it remains to wait for new projects to enter the market.”
Experts also dwelled on the difficulties associated with loan financing, which will undoubtedly affect the desire and ability of investors to invest in real estate. There is no long money on the Russian loan capital market, and Western loans this year, according to experts, will be even less accessible than in the 2011 year. Accordingly, this will affect the volume of investment.
At the end of the first session, all participants in the event were asked to answer the question of how the investment geography will be distributed in 2012. According to the results of voting, Moscow will receive 60% of all cash injections, and 40% will go to the regions.
In the second session, asset sellers - owners and development companies expressed their opinion on the development of the investment market. Voting at the beginning of this session - with the question of whether to sell assets in 2012 - showed that only 40% answered this question positively. According to Nikolai Artemenko, CEO of RosEuroDevelopment, developers are not always keen to sell good assets. “I have no desire to sell yet. We want to use the rental stream. ” In addition, according to developers, if the potential in terms of asset value has not yet been exhausted, you can hold objects until better times. Darrell Stanaford, ULI, turned to investors: “If you are not in Russia yet, now it’s worth starting to work here. In the next 5 years, the market will see new high-quality projects, but if you enter the market in 5 years, it will be too late, because the competition for high-quality assets is quite high. ” According to expert estimates, today in Russia is a good time to start development projects, for which active demand has already been formed.
At the end of the event, all participants were again asked to answer the question: will the investment volume in 2012 be higher than in 2011? The result has undergone some changes, now 45% of participants gave a positive answer.
On March 7, within the framework of the MIPIM exhibition, the 16th "Russian Breakfast" was held, organized by the publishing house "Impress Media" with the support of the general partner Jones Lang LaSalle, as well as the companies Raven Russia, ...
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