Buyer 2030. Forecasts of the development of the consumer shoe market.

Based on the results of the APICCAPS World Shoe Congress in Mexico, as well as analyzing global market trends, the worldfootwear.com team predicts key changes that will occur in the shoe industry and consumer behavior.

The crisis made serious adjustments to the plans of manufacturers and retailers. Nevertheless, any company should have a development strategy - both for the coming years and for the future. To help players in the footwear market, experts from one of the most authoritative Internet publications published a report, which took into account the main trends that will affect our world over the next few years. In their work, they reflected economic, demographic, social and cultural trends, shifting the general directions of the development of the world market to the shoe segment. The authors warn that they did not try to predict the development of the world, but only tried to identify the main trends and assess the impact of general trends on shoe production and retail.

Information flow. The main changes that are happening to the market right now are quick and easy access to any information, consumers are in constant contact with manufacturers, they are aware of all changes in trends, trends, fashion trends. Thus, consumers interact with the brands whose products they buy. This gives companies and brands the opportunity to establish and strengthen emotional connections with potential customers around the world, supported by social networks and online platforms.

Middle class. The formation of the middle class continues in developing countries and this will have a significant impact on demand and, ultimately, footwear production. Companies will need to pinpoint where their growth potential is located and how they can win the hearts of more customers. It is necessary not only to work to maintain their share in the local market, but also to think and find ways to enter other markets, leaving the boundaries of the usual circle. For example, the markets of distant countries can become key areas for brands and companies, which will open up new development prospects for them: new customers, new preferences will influence even at the stage of design creation.

Population aging. Another important trend that must be taken into account: an increase in the average age of the population, which is certainly not a new phenomenon, and will continue to intensify. More and more countries are facing demographic changes - the number of older people on the planet is growing. Of course, first of all, developed countries — the USA, France, Italy, Britain — face age-related shifts, but developing countries do not have immunity from this problem. On the contrary, every year in third world countries the trend will increase. For example, China was one of the first to demonstrate the correctness of the words of experts: the average life expectancy in the country is growing. While the birth rate is declining throughout the world, healthcare and medicine are developing, new methods of diagnosis and effective treatment, new drugs and wellness procedures that prolong life and improve its quality.

In the 1960s, life expectancy in China was 43,5 years, and after 50 years, this figure has increased by 31,7 years and has now reached 75,2 years. In high-income countries, fertility is declining, and life expectancy is increasing at a faster pace than in low- and middle-income countries. This is another proof of the aging of the population: on a global scale, the average age has changed from 24 years in 1950 to 29 years in 2010, according to UN forecasts, the figure will increase to 2050 years by 36.

Asian instinct

Economic power is moving in the direction of Asia, the trend is inextricably linked with economic growth and the redistribution of powers caused by the dynamics of the global market. It must be admitted that such an Asian superiority in history has already been observed, and this stage will not be a debut for Asia as a leading region in the economic arena.

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So, if you go back to 1700 and look at the numbers, we will see that at that historical stage, India noted 25% of world GDP, in China - 20%, Japan - less than 5%, the three largest European countries (Great Britain, Germany and France) fixed GDP at 10%, and the United States had a residual share. In 1950, the United States reached its economic maximum with a share in world GDP slightly above 25%, while China showed its absolute minimum (slightly below 5%). The share of global GDP decreased in India.

In 2000, China and India began to show growth, while the influence of the European bloc continued to decline. The trend emerging at the beginning of this century will continue into subsequent decades. Emerging markets and developing countries show the most dynamic GDP growth. Forecasts for the next few years indicate the continuation of this trend. By 2019, advanced economies will generate 40% of global GDP.

Obviously, a redistribution of forces is taking place in the market. Earlier, the growth of consumer spending was mainly associated with the USA, Japan and European countries, and the production capacities of the market were concentrated in Asia, but against the background of the economic recession of the USA and the EU, third world countries are starting to show an increase in consumption. The imports of leading countries are falling, while China and other Asian countries are moving from the current export-based economic growth model to the development of the domestic market. As a result, a significant share of global consumer spending growth will be in emerging markets, with consequences for companies and brands around the world. Brands such as Ferragamo and Prada have already taken into account these trends in the development of their brands and have seriously increased their sales in the Asian region in recent years.

Eight major developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam) represent 49,4% of the world's population. So far, their GDP is not too high in global terms, but they demonstrate the most dynamic demographic and economic growth, which makes it possible to predict future growth of GDP per capita.

Despite economic instability, leading countries forecast a 50% reduction between 2010 and 2030 in the number of people living in extreme poverty. First of all, we are talking about the countries of East Asia, especially China, where more than half of the population lives below the poverty line (60,2%), according to 1990 data. According to UN statistics, this figure has fallen sharply over the past nine years to 35,6%. Other developing countries will show similar positive dynamics in the near future. Economic growth and increased income will lead to the formation of the middle class.

According to a study presented by Ernst & Young, in 2009, 1,8 billion people could be ranked as the middle class. By 2030, that number is expected to nearly triple to 4,8 billion, or approximately 3 billion new consumers. Along with the size of the middle class, purchasing power will grow, which will lead to additional consumption and increased savings. The growth of the middle class will come at the expense of a reduction in the number of poor people. Analysts predict that by 2030 most of the world's population will belong to the middle class.