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Keep the course ...
31.08.2011 7674

Keep the course ...

Opinions about what will happen to the ruble and the dollar are increasingly reminiscent of fortune-telling on coffee grounds. Some analysts find all the prerequisites for the upward movement of the dollar, while others find many reasons for the fall in its rate. Tatiana Belova ascertained the prospects for exchange rate fluctuations from the independent analyst Sergey Kubagishev

- What will happen to the ruble against the dollar and the euro?

- In early November, the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev made the first message to the Federal Assembly. One of the points of his message was the statement that Russia would gradually switch to settlements for Russian oil and gas precisely for rubles.

Since the main buyer of oil from the reserve currencies is Europe, it means that the ruble will rise in price against the euro. Against the dollar, most likely, too, since part of the liquidity through the euro will go to the ruble, which means it will flow out of the dollar. Consequently, the dollar may continue to fall, the euro in the “euro - dollar” pair may rise, the ruble will gradually exert a corrective effect in this growth of the euro, since to buy the ruble, you must first sell dollars, then sell the euro, and only then buy the ruble.

In fact, all that is described above is a global trend, or rather, only its origin, the formation of the foundations.

In the medium term (not taking into account noise fluctuations), the dollar is still being sold to other countries, sold in relatively large quantities, the US debt is growing, parallel export of US inflation continues, but at a slower pace. Although the Chinese yuan has appeared, and the euro draws liquidity, the United States provides the main trend. In this sense, the ruble still has a relatively emulated rate, which does not affect the dollar and the euro, when it itself reflects the situation on the reserve currency market. By an emulated exchange rate we mean that the euro / dollar exchange rate is taken as the basis for our exchange rate, and our exchange rate, accordingly, is calculated on the basis of it (emulated), of course, given the price of gold. Euro / dollar + gold = ruble exchange rate emulator - it’s the same as an engine in a computer game.

In general, the forecast: the dollar will continue to weaken - the euro, in contrast, to grow.

Due to the global liquidity crisis, the export of capital from Russia due to its global deficit, deflation can occur in our country, a phenomenon when the inflation rate drops sharply due to a sharp contraction of the money supply, which leads to a rise in price of money at the time of a sharp decline in GDP. This is a disastrous path: the ruble is becoming more expensive, but you cannot buy it at “decent” prices - this is a useless increase in the ruble exchange rate. However, the president and the government of the Russian Federation have chosen the inflationary way out of the crisis - the ruble may begin to become cheaper, it will become more affordable, the speed of money will increase, and non-payments will be distributed. This is a medium-term trend.

- What do Americans think about their currency?

- I think ordinary Americans felt that their consumption had fallen, which means that there was less money - there wasn’t enough for everyone. From an emotional point of view, there is now hope for a new president, who, as an anti-crisis manager, will find ways out of the current liquidity deficit.

Analysts, economically educated Americans, like everyone else, expect the dollar to fall.

- How will fluctuations affect wholesalers and retailers of clothing and shoes?

What if the dollar rises to 30 or 35 rubles?

- I think it is important not so much how much the dollar will cost - 30, 35 or 20 rubles, what matters is the situation with liquidity and demand for products inside Russia. If there is enough money, then the import of shoes and clothes and their sales in Russia will be maintained or reduced, switching to a Russian manufacturer. The performance of these types of businesses depends on domestic demand, which can be directly and strongly influenced by the general situation with liquidity in this way. There is a lot of money in the economy and among the population - there is a sale, there is not enough money - the winding up of production begins.

In such a situation, it is necessary to reorient from import to domestic suppliers, maybe become a producer, distributor and supplier himself.

- Many say: we survived the crisis of 1998, we will survive this one as well. And what is the difference between the situation this year and in 1998 from the point of view of the financial sector?

- In 1998, the budget was terribly deficit and was financed by the sale of T-bills, which were bought and sold on the stock exchange. The volumes of sale and involvement in this speculative game turned out to be such that the state could not pay off the debts that they had accumulated before the holders of T-bills. As a result, they defaulted.

The basis of the risk in this game was not that they were being traded, but that the machine was working, which regularly stamped new T-bills, when it was necessary to pay off previous short-term obligations. That is, new T-bills were placed, and previous T-bills were repaid with money borrowed with their help, and so it was repeated over and over again.

Now everything is different. There is a lot of money, the budget is in surplus, liquidity is provided to the economy. True, it is poorly distributed throughout the Russian economy. Due to the poor flow of liquidity from large financial institutions to smaller ones, the weakest banks and financial companies will be absorbed or ruined. This is a fact, it is necessary to prepare for it. Dangerous signals have appeared that property prices may begin to fall. Large owners of commercial real estate, which include many banks of federal and regional scale, have large shares of their active operations in the mortgage resource, so their risks increase.

An ordinary person almost does not feel the crisis, and if you turn off the TV and do not read newspapers, then it will be almost invisible.

- How to plan a budget during a crisis?

- The moment of crisis is the moment of redistribution of the economy and the liberation of niches. At such a moment, you need to narrow your working capital and invest in technology and related businesses. It's economical. In fact, to survive the crisis, you need to work, work, work ...

Opinions about what will happen to the ruble and the dollar are increasingly reminiscent of fortune-telling on coffee grounds. Some analysts find all the prerequisites for the dollar's upward movement, others - a lot of reasons for ...
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