Today, even against the backdrop of crisis in the economy, the sale of children's goods remains one of the most promising market segments.
The steady increase in the birth rate in Russia over the past few years has determined a high demand for baby products. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, compared with 2000, the number of newborns has increased by now by more than 50%. At the same time, the birthrate peak fell in 2014: 1,947 million children were born, which became an absolute record in the history of Russia. Market capacity has increased markedly, which has a positive impact on both offline and online trading. The domestic market of children's products over the past few years has increased on average by more than 10% per year, twice as fast as the global market.
The current economic difficulties and the expected gradual deterioration of the demographic situation, of course, will significantly slow down further growth, but in the medium term this segment will remain one of the most stable and profitable for business. The forecasts of a number of analysts, based on the specifics of children's retail, indicate market growth within 6-8% at the end of 2015.
On the other hand, the overall retail trade turnover is expected to decline by a record 2015% in 8,2, household incomes will decline by 6,3%, and real wages by 9,6%. Such figures are given in the recent forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
Director of the Association of Retail Companies (AKORT) Andrey Karpov is confident that the decline in purchasing power will force retailers to change their assortment, focusing on the economy segment. The same trend will be inherent in children's retail, albeit to a lesser extent. Parents in Russia traditionally try not to save on children, spending more than a third of their budget on goods and services for children even during the crisis, as the 2008–2009 period showed. And yet, in difficult conditions, children's retailers will have to play by "new rules" in order to maintain the loyalty of their customers.
If until this summer, market participants still had the opportunity to sell old collections of goods at prices slightly different from last year’s prices, now children's retailers are actively looking for manufacturers of inexpensive goods.
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