By 2025, up to 40% of purchases will be made on the Internet, according to the international company Deutsche Post DHL. Today the share of online purchases in the total retail trade in developed countries reaches 10%, in Russia - up to 2-3%. In monetary terms, in 2013, the turnover of Internet retail in the United States amounted to $ 264 billion, in China - $ 193 billion, in Germany - $ 52 billion, in Russia - about $ 17 billion.
The "boom" of international online commerce is possible, of course, under certain conditions "x, - explained Jurgen Gerdes, member of the board of the company in charge of postal delivery of online orders. - Among the systemic factors are the stable political situation in the world, stable growth of the global economy, liberal foreign economic course and limitation of protectionist measures. We need to develop a logistics system so that online orders arrive faster. We believe that the behavior of Internet consumers themselves will also change: now the price of goods and convenience of purchase are important for them. The further, the more essential for the buyer his experience of shopping on the Internet and the status of the goods that he purchases will become. Naturally, all this will take place against the background of an increase in the overall digital culture and the level of security on the Internet.
In Russia, the forecast is mixed. On the one hand, analysts predict an increase in household incomes, which implies an increase in the number of online purchases. On the other hand, the population of the country will decrease (by 2025 to 139 million people), which means that the growth potential of the number of online buyers is limited. By the way, in Russia today, according to the Association of Internet Commerce Companies (AKIT), 30 million online shoppers. Moreover, an increase in their number in recent years has been mainly due to network users from the regions.
Domestic experts also believe that the old postal system, a large share of counterfeit goods, and the use of online stores for tax evasion are an obstacle to the active development of electronic commerce.
Recall that at the beginning of the year the state announced its fight against the "gray zone" of Russian online retail. The Ministry of Finance proposed to reduce the threshold for duty-free import of goods for individuals from $ 1 a month to $ 150. Despite the fact that the average check for an overseas order of a Russian online buyer, according to AKIT, is within the range of $ 40-100. According to the adopted normative act, which came into force on June 5, the government will have the opportunity to implement this idea. Experts fear that this will lead to overregulation of online trading. After all, cross-border Internet retail in Russia occupies, according to various estimates, only 10-20% of the entire e-commerce market.