The consulting company RRG analyzed the ongoing changes in the sphere of consumption, and made its forecast for the future situation in retail.
Supermarkets and discounters, children's goods stores will be least affected in the crisis, said Denis Kolokolnikov, chairman of the board of directors of RRG.
Small shopping centers located in residential areas will gain more popularity than now, he predicts. In turn, people will visit large shopping and entertainment centers less often. “Developers will have to pay more attention to the formation of concepts for their new objects or the reconception of existing ones. And retailers from the protected group, on the contrary, can start expansion, ”the expert sums up.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2015, the level of vacant space in Moscow shopping centers reached an all-time high in the last eight years, says Maxim Palt, senior consultant of the market research department of CBRE. Now it is about 9%, but it is possible that by the end of the year the figure may reach 11-12%. This is primarily due to the technical launch of new projects, which at the time of opening were on average no more than 25-30% filled. The growth in the share of vacant space is associated with a high rotation of tenants, who optimize the business, reducing unprofitable points.
Shopping centers now have to fight for retailers by any means. The market has not yet reached the bottom, according to Olga Yasko, director of the analytics department of the international consulting company Knight Frank. “Consequently, there is no reason for operators of any profile to actively expand,” she says. “There is no pandemic of operators leaving the market of any particular direction: today the rental costs of many network companies are calculated taking into account the turnover, which somewhat secured operators from a sharp increase in rental payments and allowed them to maintain their positions in the market.”