The share of vacant premises in new shopping centers is decreasing, in “old" ones it is growing

The results of the first half of 2015 year in the segment of shopping centers in Moscow

Record half year

The record for the second half of 2014 on the Moscow shopping center market was followed by the record for the first half of 2015. Thus, in the first half of this year, 5 shopping centers with a total leasable area of ​​311,8 thousand sq. M were commissioned in Moscow. m. This is the largest volume of commissioning of retail space registered in Moscow based on the results of the first half of the year. This was reported by experts of the specialized company "STORE STORES", a consultant in the field of commercial real estate. Moreover, in the first half of this year, the largest volume of commissioned space was recorded according to the results of the first half of the year over the past 10 years, starting from 2006.

“The record volume of commissioning in the first half of the year was due to the opening of large facilities, first of all, Columbus (140 thousand sq. M. GLA),” comments Andrey Vasyutkin, Head of Research and Consulting Department, STORE MAGAZINOV. - In the second quarter, the MARi shopping and entertainment center opened, a project with a long history. With the commissioning of this object, there has been one less long-term construction in the capital. The trend of last year, when shopping centers open with a high proportion of vacant space, continued. So, for example, in the same MARi at the time of commissioning, only 9% of the GLA center operated points. "

Shopping centers opened in Moscow at Н1 2015

The share of vacant space in the shopping center continued to grow

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Despite the record volume of input, a little more than half of the space actually operates in new facilities at the moment. A large volume of new supply, on the one hand, optimization and suspension of development plans for many networks, on the other hand, leads to the fact that the number of non-working premises in Moscow shopping centers continues to grow. On average, according to the calculations of the specialists of STORE STORE, the level of empty space in the market has increased from 8,5% at the end of 2014 of the year to 10% at the current moment. The total volume of vacant premises in shopping centers in Moscow now amounts to about 520 thousand sq. M. GLA, for the sake of obvious presentation - this is more than two Aviaparks.

“Most of the vacant space falls on new shopping centers, that is, commissioned in 2014 of the year and later - 35% of GLA does not work in these objects. In shopping centers open before 2014, the rate of vacant space is significantly lower. However, if the indicator decreases for new objects over time due to the fact that the objects attract tenants and are replenished, then in centers that have long been on the market, the opposite trend is observed - the empty space indicator is growing. To date, in the shopping center of this category, there are 6% non-functioning points, against 4% at the end of the 2014 year. Of course, there are facilities that even before the crisis had problems with occupancy by tenants, the level of vacant premises is higher in them (for example, Afimall - 17%). ” In the new shopping centers opened in 2014, at the end of the year the empty space indicator reached 38% GLA versus 32% at the moment, ”says Andrey Vasyutkin.

At the beginning of the 2015 year, experts predicted that the level of vacant space in Moscow shopping centers by the end of December would reach 12-14%. Now, taking into account the specified dates for the introduction of new shopping centers, the forecast can be adjusted: by the end of the year, the share of non-functioning points in Moscow shopping centers will be 11-13%. At the same time, shopping centers introduced after 2014 will continue to open stores, and in shopping centers opened before 2014, the level of vacant space will increase insignificantly.

By the end of the year, four more objects are planned to be commissioned.

Taking into account the postponement of the opening dates of a number of projects, the current forecast for the new proposal of the shopping center in Moscow has been adjusted before the end of the year. Recall that at the beginning of the year, 13 objects with a total leasable area of ​​657,1 sq.m GLA were planned for opening. Of the declared volume, 47% of the plan was introduced in the first half of the year, another 25% was announced for the second half of the year, and the remaining third was carried over to the 2016 year. Now, by the end of the 2015 year, 4 facilities of the total GLA 161 thousand square meters have been announced.

“The declared plans of developers to open facilities in 2015 have been seriously adjusted. Many objects are already transferred to the 2016 year. The slowdown in construction time under the current conditions is affected by both higher cost of borrowed financing and difficulties with attracting tenants. Together, as we predicted earlier, we expect that by the end of the year, 60% of the volume declared at the beginning of the year will be introduced, ”concluded Andrey Vasyutkin.