It is believed that the children's goods industry remains a very promising area, even in times of crisis. What is this opinion based on? Is it really? What threats do retailers face?
In Russia, 1200 companies that sell exclusively children's products. 300 thousand people are employed in the industry. Its share is greater than that of the aircraft industry. The market volume per year is on average 700 billion rubles, of which domestic goods occupy only 1 / 5. On average, growth is more than 10% per year (in 2012 / 13 -16%, forecast for 2015 - growth by 17%). In relation to 2000, the number of newborns in the country increased by 50%. At the same time, the peak of births occurred in 2014: 1,947 million children were born, which was an absolute record in the history of Russia since the beginning of the 2000's. The current economic difficulties and the expected gradual deterioration of the demographic situation, of course, will significantly slow down further growth, but in the medium term this segment will remain one of the most stable and profitable for business.
Today, more than 24 million children live in Russia - this is more than 15% of the country's population. The most significant age group among them is the group of children under the age of 4 years - about 9 million people. Children of 5-9 years old make up about 8 million, 10-13 years old - more than 5 million, and adolescents aged 14-15 years old - more than 2 million people.
According to various expert estimates, in Russia in the first place in the structure of sales of children's goods is clothing - 30 – 35%. The second place is occupied by games and toys - about 24%. More than 20% of the market is occupied by goods for babies. Shoes account for 9 – 10%.
Most of all, in 2014 the segment of goods for newborns grew - by 13% per year, and its share in the total market of children's goods amounted to 24%. For comparison, the segment of children's clothing occupies 32% of the market for children's goods, the segment of children's shoes - 9%, toys - 23%.
In the past few years, including 2013, the market for children's goods has been the fastest growing - on average + 8% compared to 2012 in rubles. If we compare the volumes of the children's fashion market for 2014 compared to 2013, the market fell by 8% in rubles. In 2015, a decrease of 8% in rubles is also forecasted.
In general, retail sales in 2015 are expected to decrease by more than 8,2%, household incomes will decrease by 6,3%, and real wages by 9,6%. Such figures are given in a recent forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Moreover, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, in January 2015, the growth of consumer prices in the Russian Federation in annual terms accelerated to 15% compared to 11,4% for the entire 2014 year.
Most likely, a decrease in purchasing power will force retailers to change the range, focusing on the economy segment.
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