Finances sing cruel romances

Already in September 2008, some Russian banks began to demand early repayment of loans and stopped lending on the security of goods in circulation, others began to increase collateral or reduce the amount of loans. The procedure for issuing loans has become heavier, long-term loans have ceased, overdrafts have become more complicated, and problems have begun when prolonging and renewing loans. What to do? What to count on? What to prepare for? The prospects for relations between banks and borrowers were studied by Elena Igosheva. 

Essence of the question

In 2007, as a result of the crisis in the global financial markets, the mechanism that ensured the rapid and interconnected expansion of domestic credit and financial markets, the accelerated inflow of capital and the de-dollarization of the Russian economy was destroyed. As a result, systemic risks in the banking sector increased and the inflationary impact of money supply growth intensified.

According to Interfax, the solvency level of some Russian companies reached their lowest levels in the 2007 year, before the global financial crisis grew. Thus, the net debt of the largest Russian enterprises increased in 2007 by 37% in comparison with 2006. At the same time, retail trade has become one of the leaders in terms of growth in net debt (by 51%). And net working capital, which is one of the most important indicators of financial stability, grew much more slowly than net debt in most sectors. The most difficult situation was construction: the volume of short-term debt exceeded the profit from sales (the ratio of short-term loans plus accounts payable to profit from sales) in 2007 year in 9,1 times. In retail this indicator last year amounted to 5,1 times.

Implications for shoe companies

On average, interest rates rose by 3-6% at a time. Retail lending rates now range from 14 to 22%, sometimes reaching 25%. Along with this, loan terms are reduced, for example, from a year to six months. In fact, corporate lending today is covering short-term cash gaps. These are the words of the vice-president of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia Oleg Ivanov. That is, today enterprises need to forget about long-term loans for business development. And forget everything: large, and small, and medium-sized businesses.

There is a snowball effect: on the one hand, servicing more expensive loans leads to a decrease in profitability for trading and manufacturing companies, on the other hand, banks that evaluate a borrower in terms of ever worsening financial indicators can easily reduce the level of credit quality and raise rates even more.

“In the current economic situation, a number of banks have reduced the volume of lending, some players have left the market altogether, it is not clear temporarily or completely. Banks have become more demanding in assessing the borrower's business, selectively accepting this or that property as collateral, trying to make the collateral for loans more liquid, ”says Ekaterina Pisareva, head of the SME development department of OJSC Sobinbank. - Interest rates on loans are determined by the cost and urgency of the bank's resources, therefore, they have increased over the past few months. It is difficult to predict how long this situation will last, but we are not yet talking about a radical change in the bank's credit policy and the system of working with the borrower ”.

On the other hand, sellers themselves say that they need short-term loans (if we are talking about the money needed to purchase seasonal collections). For example, loans taken in June-July for school shoes pay off already in the winter. But due to the distrust of banks, it has become difficult to get them. Banking experts say retail has become a dubious borrower for several reasons: there is a high risk of default on loans already issued. In addition, the risk of lower demand for retailers' products may lead to a decrease in current liquidity of trading companies.

The second reason for curtailing credit programs is that banks simply do not have enough money.

Due to the fact that now it is more difficult for banks to receive funds abroad, they have reduced the amount of money available for lending to small and medium-sized businesses. Many of the tools with which banks worked and earned money have now ceased to be effective (lending, investments in securities, promissory notes are severely lost in price, and banks are forced to sell them with losses).

Forecasts made a couple of years ago

The fact that the current crisis will be unusual in scale, and most importantly, in its consequences, some researchers began to speak of several years ago. The renowned European laboratory Laboratoire europeen d'Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP / E2020) in 2006 identified seven minor crises that “will intensify and develop into a global crisis that will affect the entire planet in political, economic and financial areas, and, most likely in the military ":

- crisis of confidence in the US dollar;

- crisis of the US financial balance (on January 22 of 2008 of the year, the US Federal Reserve System announced a decrease in the base interest rate by 0,75 pp to 3,5% per annum);

- oil crisis;

- US leadership crisis;

- crisis of the Arab-Muslim world;

- global government crisis;

- European government crisis.

According to experts of the Institute of National Strategy, at the finish of Vladimir Putin’s reign Russia will face (and is already facing) three major crises: food (uncontrolled rise in food prices due to the critical dependence of the Russian economy on imports), infrastructure (due to the critical deterioration of key elements national infrastructure) and the banking liquidity crisis.

Nevertheless, many regional trading companies believe that the crisis either does not exist or will not affect them.

How to identify a crisis in fact

It is possible to attribute the state of the national economy to critical if four phenomena occur.

1. The fall of stock indices.

2. Bankruptcy of investment banks.

3. Difficulties with the implementation of interbank lending.

4. Bank failures and their subsequent nationalization.

According to the associate professor of the department "Exchange business and securities" REA them. G.V. Plekhanov Mikhail Sapelkin, all four signs in Russia are already there.

“The current situation in the financial markets of Russia is very deplorable. There is a widespread outflow of foreign capital, massive sales of Russian assets by foreign and domestic investors, says Sapelkin. - The RTS Index, reflecting the state of Russian companies, their market financial assessment, fell from maximum 2500 points to 800 points. Bank failures began. Some of these banks have already acquired the state through their near-state companies. For example, ALROSA and Russian Railways bought a large bank KIT Finance in a state of bankruptcy, Renaissance Capital urgently changed its owner. Banks are now under tremendous pressure - depositors are massively withdrawing money, especially for small and regional banks, there is no lending, and a wave of non-payments has swept the interbank lending market. Banks are experiencing liquidity problems. ”

For reference. Rates on the interbank lending market on 11 in August reached 8% versus 4-5% at the beginning of the month. The volume of funds raised at REPO auctions with the Central Bank has sharply increased: on August 11 and 12 they exceeded 200 billion rubles. In order to improve the liquidity situation, the Ministry of Finance on 12 provided 119 billion rubles from the budget to commercial banks at a rate above 8% on August.

Sapelkin predicts that the outflow of capital will continue: “Funds allocated by the state to support the financial system of Russia, as well as to support enterprises suffering losses in the current economic situation, amount to hundreds of billions of rubles and US dollars. The country's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $ 120 billion over two months. All this leads to a decrease in international credit ratings of both the state and Russian banks and companies, which will entail new sales of Russian assets by investors and will subsequently provoke a new wave of capital outflows abroad. ” This means that banks will continue to have problems with liquidity, and in retail - with lending.

Credit Alternatives

Another question is that now you can look for an alternative to bank lending. In the short term, the crisis of defaults can be unleashed by a qualitative reduction in service rates at factoring companies. The government has already recommended that banks develop factoring, that is, targeted lending to enterprises for settlements for delivered products. For sellers who have a large turnover and relatively small profits, factoring is a way to get a life saving loan. In the medium term, corporate bonds can become an alternative to foreign borrowing.

Options for the development of the situation at the end of the 2008 year

The developed economies of the world entered a recession, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stated in its economic review at the beginning of November. And as Fitch Ratings notes, it will be the most severe since the Second World War, and the first developed world enters into it synchronously. The restoration of activity in the West will begin no earlier than the middle of the 2009 year, subject to state support for the real sector, and small annual growth will be recorded only in the 2010 year. Experts note that economic recovery in developing countries, including Russia, may begin earlier.

Russian Fitch analysts predict a slowdown in economic growth from 6,8% this year to 4% in 2009. A sharp slowdown in capital inflows will hit the availability of loans, and a reduction in oil prices will reduce the country's income. However, a sharp “landing” of the economy will most likely be avoided, as the authorities have reduced the banking sector's dependence on external financing. In addition, with the exception of the oil sector, the Russian economy is slightly vulnerable to declining global trade, Fitch said.

The Russian Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting (CIAM) has two scenarios for future developments.

Optimistic scenario

The end of the next wave of crisis in the markets of developed countries, the emergence of a short-term (approximately half a year) pause preceding the next shock.

During this period, global and commodity markets will partially recover.

Compared to the third quarter, there will be some expansion of the possibilities for refinancing debts by Russian banks and companies in foreign markets.

The output of oil prices (Urals) at the level of 85 dollars per barrel on average per quarter.

With an optimistic development of events, purchases of foreign currency in official reserves will resume, which will amount to $ 25-30 billion. This will create favorable conditions for restoring the liquidity of the banking system.

Pessimistic scenario

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Deepening the current wave of the crisis in the markets of developed countries, leading to a further decline in stock indices and the depressed state of commodity markets.

A sharp deterioration in debt refinancing opportunities by Russian banks and companies - up to half of debt obligations repaid in the IV quarter.

Lower oil prices (Urals) to the level of 75 dollars per barrel on average per quarter.

With a pessimistic option, in the fourth quarter there will be a reduction in official foreign exchange reserves (including through refinancing of debts of companies and banks through the Development Bank) by $ 16-18 billion. This could significantly increase the liquidity shortage in the banking system. However, this strengthening will be avoided if the government fully implements the declared package of measures to support the banking system and financial markets.

Is it worth worrying

Naturally, the question arises, to what extent will all of these processes affect companies that have developed for the most part at their own expense? And will they be affected at all? Is it worth the worry?

According to forecasts, the peak of the crisis will occur in January-February 2009.

According to the director of the Center for Stock Market Development (CFRF) Yuri Danilov, if we manage to limit ourselves to the current level of losses, then tens of thousands of people in the country will lose their jobs, several hundred thousand will lose their wages, about a million private investors will incur about 10-20% losses on your investments. If the crisis enters a phase of large-scale bankruptcies, then we can get a reduction in the average real wage in the country, and hundreds of thousands of new unemployed, and non-compliance by banks and construction companies with the terms of contracts with the population.

Priority measures for each specific store

What you need to do to the owner of each particular store.

1. Track the dynamics of sales (revenue and margin profit): both by product category and by each specific product.

2. Identify lists of products with a steady trend towards lower sales.

3. Look for the reasons for the drop in sales of a particular product in a particular store, analyzing its hourly sales and comparing them with the stocks available at that time in order to detect the absence of goods on shelves and / or on stocks.

4. To analyze the trading activity on the basis of information obtained from cash receipts, but not so much from their entire mass as from the totality of purchases that brings the main profit. Such a focus will allow us to identify the needs of typical customers to more fully satisfy their demand, optimize the assortment by this criterion.

5. Using various types of matrix analysis (ABC-XYZ, Boston matrix and Dibba-Simkin), make changes to the assortment both within certain categories and the entire assortment portfolio in order to maximize profits with minimal logistics costs.

6. Search for optimal prices for goods to get the most profit from their sales.

Recession, Not Revolution

The financial crisis that has complicated lending is only part of the problem. The flip side of the coin is that the economic recession first occurs simultaneously in all developed countries. A chronicle of where and how GDP is reduced, what governments and central banks of other countries do, the amount of funds allocated to support national economies can be found on all business information sites. Another thing is interesting: how did this crisis arise and how fundamentally will it change the system of economic coordinates?

According to Konstantin Sonin, professor at the Russian School of Economics (NES), director of research at the HSE / NES Institute for Fundamental Interdisciplinary Studies, the reason is that there is too much money in the world and this money has become too cheap. The sources of the flood of the economy were banknotes, printing presses, bank multipliers and guarantees from central banks.

Liquidity increased, and in some markets the value of assets began to be several times greater than their real value, that is, “bubbles” began to bloat, or economically unsatisfied expectations of investors. Quite simple and wide access to cheap credit resources, incorrect valuation of assets, incorrect calculation of risks or ignoring them led to the crisis.

According to Sonin, the crisis is not structural, it is developing within the framework of the existing economic cycle, which means that actions to eliminate it are quite predictable. Now the task of the state is to re-evaluate the assets of banks, to prevent bankruptcy of banks and panic among the population, to avoid deflation, and to prevent protectionism of markets.

How much these proposals will correspond to the real actions of the authorities, we will find out after December 1, when an updated forecast for the development of the Russian economy will be given.

However, already at the end of October, the assistant to the head of state for economic affairs, Arkady Dvorkovich, said that the authorities would support many sectors affected by financial disasters. If developers have difficulties, the state is ready to buy from them objects in order to prevent long-term construction. Assistance will also be given to retail chains if buyers can suffer from their ruin. Support will be given to engineering, defense, as well as agriculture and small business. According to A. Dvorkovich, first of all, assistance will be provided to the retail sector, including pharmacy chains. They will be able not only to receive additional credit resources, but also to enjoy tax benefits.

By the way, Charles Collins, deputy director of the research department of the International Monetary Fund, spoke during the visit to Moscow that the crisis does not go beyond predictable forecasts. According to him, the developed countries in the 2009 year will face a recession everywhere, neither in the USA, nor in the Eurozone, nor in Japan will the growth exceed 0,5%, and even if the right measures are taken, Mr. Collins warned. In any case, the chances for improvement will appear only in the second half of the year. Its main sources in the United States may be exports and a possible increase in demand from the population, and in the Eurozone, the same retail demand and growth in gross investment in fixed assets.

The peculiarity of the current world crisis is that in dynamics it is not similar to the previous recessions that arose in America. It is extended over time, has a more gentle recession and a possible rise, which is very reminiscent of the crises of Japan and Scandinavia 1990's caused by adjustments in the real estate market. A possible explanation for this, both then and now, is simple - it is real estate that gives smoothness to both recession and growth.

General Director of Unichel CJSC Vladimir Denisenko:

- Our business consists of two components - the production part and our own distribution network of two hundred stores. But if this year we managed to open 20 new outlets, then, given the situation, in the next we are forced to reduce the development program to 8-10 stores. It is necessary to take into account the moment that the areas in the central and passage places will be freed in shopping centers. In this regard, we plan to move some stores to a more favorable location. If we talk about buying retail chains, then, in principle, the company is ready to consider such proposals, if any. The only caveat is that they usually sell business, not property. Nevertheless, this may also be interesting and quite acceptable for us. Of course, we are trying to turn the situation in our direction. Own retail makes this easier. Most likely, it will be necessary to reduce the number of shoe orders from other suppliers, while maintaining its production part at the same level. You will have to save on the material and technical base. This year they planned to upgrade official vehicles, but in the end they decided to postpone it to a later time. But the acquisition of new industrial equipment should not be postponed. Last year, we bought it for $ 1 million. Our plans for this are to invest $ 600-700 thousand in equipment upgrades.

It’s not the time to talk about production growth. We need to think about how to hold out for a year or two, and then see what happens to the market. While producing shoes in Russia is unprofitable. Perhaps the growth of the dollar will create a more favorable situation for the development of domestic production. But how long will this process be? On the other hand, China will not want to lose its existing position either. Chinese manufacturers will prefer to squeeze in revenues, give customers better working conditions than to lose ground. This situation has a third side: sales will fall sharply, respectively, many shoe companies will be affected by the problem of repaying loans. Most likely, they will no longer be able to buy the next seasonal collection. This will entail the release of the market and the emergence of opportunities for the development of production.

Marketing Director of Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO Irina Evsyukova:

- Over the past few years, production growth at the company amounted to about 25-35% annually. Given the current economic situation next year, we plan to keep production volumes at the level of 2008 and pay more attention to the refinement and analysis of the range. We plan to reduce advertising costs in 2009 by about 40%. We keep the plans for the development of existing projects and even more thorough research and market analysis. We assume that there will be an adjustment and redistribution of the consumer basket. We are confident in our future. Firstly, our customers pay great attention to quality, understanding that the health of children depends on it, and they are unlikely to start saving, and secondly, children grow up, the need for updating the shoe wardrobe is natural, and thirdly, we still it’s not customary to save on children; rather, parents will refuse something to themselves. If we talk about the exhibition sector, then we plan to participate in the MosShoes exhibition. It is clear that holding parallel presentations and exhibitions erodes the audience, but we hope that time will put everything in its place.

Over the past few years, Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO has paid much attention to the issue of updating equipment, and now we have a fairly modern technological park at all production sites. Therefore, there is no need to attract loans for these purposes. If investment in production is necessary, then we will try to do without loans.

According to analysts, in the next six months, obtaining loans from banks (both commercial and state) will be problematic even for companies such as ours (with a positive credit history), during this period we do not plan to take loans. We also hope that our retail partners will find a way out of this situation with the least losses.

If we talk about the possibilities of combining the shoe business, then we can say that Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO has been working in this direction for several years. We combined our market development efforts with Komplekt OJSC (Moscow), KurskObuv LLC (Kursk), Surana LLC (Zaraysk) and Kaluga Shoe Factory KALITA OJSC (Kaluga ) Taking this step, we realized that it is more difficult to survive in the market alone, and now our cooperation lives up to our expectations. As a result of the created partnership, everyone won: Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO received additional production sites, the experience of specialists from partner factories, factories - a guaranteed order, good management. There was an opportunity to exchange experience and knowledge of specialists from different sites.

General Director of Unichel CJSC Vladimir Denisenko:

- Our business consists of two components - the production part and our own distribution network of two hundred stores. But if this year we managed to open 20 new outlets, then, given the situation, in the next we are forced to reduce the development program to 8-10 stores. It is necessary to take into account the moment that the areas in the central and passage places will be freed in shopping centers. In this regard, we plan to move some stores to a more favorable location. If we talk about buying retail chains, then, in principle, the company is ready to consider such proposals, if any. The only caveat is that they usually sell business, not property. Nevertheless, this may also be interesting and quite acceptable for us. Of course, we are trying to turn the situation in our direction. Own retail makes this easier. Most likely, it will be necessary to reduce the number of shoe orders from other suppliers, while maintaining its production part at the same level. You will have to save on the material and technical base. This year they planned to upgrade official vehicles, but in the end they decided to postpone it to a later time. But the acquisition of new industrial equipment should not be postponed. Last year, we bought it for $ 1 million. Our plans for this are to invest $ 600-700 thousand in equipment upgrades.

It’s not the time to talk about production growth. We need to think about how to hold out for a year or two, and then see what happens to the market. While producing shoes in Russia is unprofitable. Perhaps the growth of the dollar will create a more favorable situation for the development of domestic production. But how long will this process be? On the other hand, China will not want to lose its existing position either. Chinese manufacturers will prefer to squeeze in revenues, give customers better working conditions than to lose ground. This situation has a third side: sales will fall sharply, respectively, many shoe companies will be affected by the problem of repaying loans. Most likely, they will no longer be able to buy the next seasonal collection. This will entail the release of the market and the emergence of opportunities for the development of production.

Marketing Director of Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO Irina Evsyukova:

- Over the past few years, production growth at the company amounted to about 25-35% annually. Given the current economic situation next year, we plan to keep production volumes at the level of 2008 and pay more attention to the refinement and analysis of the range. We plan to reduce advertising costs in 2009 by about 40%. We keep the plans for the development of existing projects and even more thorough research and market analysis. We assume that there will be an adjustment and redistribution of the consumer basket. We are confident in our future. Firstly, our customers pay great attention to quality, understanding that the health of children depends on it, and they are unlikely to start saving, and secondly, children grow up, the need for updating the shoe wardrobe is natural, and thirdly, we still it’s not customary to save on children; rather, parents will refuse something to themselves. If we talk about the exhibition sector, then we plan to participate in the MosShoes exhibition. It is clear that holding parallel presentations and exhibitions erodes the audience, but we hope that time will put everything in its place.

Over the past few years, Yegoryevsk-Obuv OAO has paid much attention to the issue of updating equipment, and now we have a fairly modern technological park at all production sites. Therefore, there is no need to attract loans for these purposes. If investment in production is necessary, then we will try to do without loans.

According to analysts, in the next six months it will be problematic to get loans from banks (both commercial and state ones) even for companies like ours (with a positive credit history), during this period we do not plan to take loans. We also hope that our retail partners will find a way out of this situation with the least possible losses. If we talk about the possibilities of combining the footwear business, we can say that Egorievsk-Obuv OJSC has been working in this direction for several years. We have combined our efforts to develop the market with OJSC Komplekt (Moscow), LLC KurskObuv (Kursk), LLC Surana (Zaraysk) and OJSC Kaluga shoe factory KALITA (Kaluga ). Taking this step, we realized that it is more difficult to survive on the market alone, and now our cooperation is justifying our expectations. As a result of the created partnership, everyone won: Egorievsk-Obuv OJSC received additional production sites, the experience of specialists from partner factories, factories - a guaranteed order, good management. There was an opportunity to exchange experience and knowledge of specialists from different sites.