According to PwC's forecast "World Entertainment and Media Industry 2009-1013", in 2009 the global media market will fall by 11,5%, while the Russian one - by 18% compared to 2008.
The current situation
In 2009, there was a massive revision of advertising tariffs, conversion from currency to rubles, it was impossible to estimate the size of discounts on the advertising industry, although it was clear that they were large, active dumping began.
Advertisers were interested in who would fall below, there was a pursuit of discounts, the only tendency was "more for less." With such a policy, according to marketers, the differences between brands are blurred.
The largest decrease in advertising budgets was noted in the segments of expensive cars, real estate, banking and insurance services (up to 40-70%) - a drop in classifieds and image advertising.
The budgets for luxury brands, in the segments of tourism, expensive equipment, and clothes were reduced.
A stable position was demonstrated by the advertising segments of healthcare and medicine, esoterics, distance selling, SMS services, consumer goods, primarily food.
A serious drop was noted in regional markets, the lack of information about the volume of advertisements placed in the regions reduces the share of the press, making it less attractive to advertisers.
The redistribution of the market in favor of segment leaders, among markets - in favor of TV.
The transition to seasonal advertising instead of annual.
The media has become more advertising of the media themselves, PR often replaces advertising (white and gray).
Forecasts: In 3-4 quarters of 2009, revival is expected, hopes for budget balances and seasonal growth.
AKAR: The annual growth for 2008 year is 18%, the lowest since 2001 year, for the first half of 2009 year, the Russian market dipped by 30%. For the first quarter of 2009, the drop on TV was 20%, on the radio - 38%, on print media - 42% (34% - newspapers, 40% - magazines, 51% - advertising publications), on outdoor advertising - 36%, on the Internet - 15%, in new media - 35%. The total drop is 29%. In the second quarter, the decline reached 30% (40% for newspapers, 41% for magazines, 53% for advertising).
In late September - early October, global advertising agencies updated forecasts. Estimates diverged significantly.
ZenithOptimedia: market decline - 24-28% (instead of 17,5% in April).
Carat: Russia is given the most unenviable role in the global report due to the fall in the real sector of the economy: the fall in the advertising market is almost 22% (April forecast is 8,6%). But in 2010, the growth of 1,5% is predicted, which is higher than many countries. The only segment showing growth is the Internet.
Experts of Video International ”: the decline in the advertising market was very uneven, which led to a redistribution of media shares - there is a sharp increase in the share of TV due to pricing and aggressive PR advertising (from 51% in 2008 to 58% in 2009). Now the decline in incomes has stopped, which has become a signal for the restoration and growth of consumption in the country, and, accordingly, the advertising market. There are no reasons for growth in the first half of the 2010 year, we can talk about a weak recovery, growth is forecasted in the second half of the 2010 year.
AKAR: not a single serious media outlet (market leaders) has changed price lists, conditions and discounts have changed.
Major advertisers forecast budgets for 2010 year at the level of 2009 year, for some - a slight increase.
Advertisers accustomed to serious discounts may be tempted to save on ordering and placing advertisements in the future, 2010 year.
AFS-IMG: if earlier there was a struggle for budgets between players in the press market, now the struggle for the budgets of other segments, especially TV, has begun.
Agencies request more information, require big discounts and bonuses, conduct more tenders.
Advertisers are showing increasing interest in the distribution structure of publications and in their own research data, in special projects and non-standard solutions.
The likelihood of further consolidation of the market and budgets in the hands of the largest media buyers. Information provided by the Press Publishers Guild
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