Did predictions come true five years ago

Five years is a short period for the market, but based on the changes that have occurred during this time, certain conclusions can be drawn. We carefully re-read the Shoes Report magazines for the 2008 year (53-63 issues inclusive) and evaluated how true the forecasts made on the shoe market at that time turned out to be.

In the 53 issue of Shoes Report, it was predicted: According to research company Nielsen, in 2008, residents of the five largest cities in Russia spent about 3100-4600 rubles a month on children's products. Analysts predict a boom in children's retail, including footwear, linking this with assumptions about rising household incomes and higher spending on consumer goods.

Now it turned out: Children's retail not only did not grow, but also significantly lost in income. In 2013, Esper Group conducted a study, according to the results of which it became known that residents of the ten largest cities in Russia are ready to spend 18 300 rubles a year on a child, of which a little more than 50% is spent on the purchase of shoes. Simple calculations show that the “children's” budget of the respondents is only 1525 rubles per month, which does not correspond to forecasts five years ago.

Verdict: the forecast for a boom in children's retail did not come true.

In the 55 issue of Shoes Report, it was predicted: In 2007, the Obuv Rossii GK company launched an installment sales program for shoes. The volume of shoes sold in this way for the year amounted to 130 million rubles. The company plans to increase this indicator at least 2 times in the coming years.

Now it turned out: According to the official data of Obuv Rossii, for the first 9 months of 2013, goods worth 1,05 billion rubles were sold in installments. Consequently, over 5 years, Obuv Rossii has increased sales on credit by almost 8 times. Today, installment on shoes is becoming an increasingly popular service, which is introduced into the work of both online and offline stores.

Verdict: Obuv Rossii's plan for installment sales of shoes was overfulfilled by 8 times. The forecast came true with interest.

We wrote in detail about the results and mechanics of the “Installment Shoes” service in the Shoes Report magazine No. 113

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In the 56 issue of Shoes Report, it was predicted: Among the 10 trends in the development of global retail trade are the increase in the level of social responsibility among customers, the development of non-standard retail formats, the desire to improve the customer experience, turning the purchase into entertainment. The most important trends are multichannel sales, as well as the shift in the epicenter of consumer demand from the US to Asian countries.

Now it turned out: The 2008 crisis of the year, as expected, crippled the economy of the United States, reducing both the level of per capita income and the overall US influence in the global economy. At the same time, 2-4-th places in the ranking of countries with the highest GDP in the 2012 year are China, India and Japan. This means that there is high customer demand in the Asia-Pacific region, as evidenced by the increasing interest of the world's leading fashion retailers in Tokyo, Shanghai, Singapore and other major cities in Asia.

The development of multi-channel sales has become one of the most important areas of retail change. This is due to qualitative changes in the group of main consumers: they were the so-called millennials (people born in the 1980-2000 years), whose life is very much connected with multimedia technologies. For the young generation, it is not the fact of the purchase that matters, but the emotions received from it. Therefore, as predicted in 2008, many companies are now focused on improving their customer experience. This trend, by the way, is now called among the most important for the coming years. Social responsibility for millennials is also a significant factor.

Verdict: the forecast for a shift in the epicenter of demand for Asia and the development of multichannel sales came true.

In the 56 issue of Shoes Report, it was predicted: Prices for shoes from well-known brands of the premium segment in 2008 have risen markedly. For example, in the spring of 2008, the minimum cost of Christian Louboutin ballet shoes was $ 880. A further increase in prices for premium shoes is expected.

Now it turned out: In the official Christian Louboutin online store, the cheapest ballet shoes cost $ 595. But this rather demonstrates some changes in the pricing policy of a particular brand than the general market trend. Yes, the crisis has made adjustments, forcing retailers in 2008-2009 to lower margins on designer shoes and increase discount offers. But this did not last long, and in 2011-2012 both prices and consumption of designer accessories returned to the pre-crisis level, and today there is a slow but steady increase in these indicators.

Verdict: the forecast for an increase in prices for premium-segment shoes has partially come true.

In the 60 issue of Shoes Report, it was predicted: According to the results of 2007, the share of sales of domestic shoes in the Russian market amounted to only 10%. The growth of this indicator is not predicted. Sales of all shoes in Russia in value terms in 2007 reached 435 billion rubles, which is approximately 17,4 billion dollars (taking into account the average exchange rate for the year). A slowdown in market growth is expected.

Now it turned out: Import satisfies% of demand in the Russian footwear market 80, which implies that domestic products increased their market presence by almost 2 times compared to the 2008 indicator of the year. In 2012, the total footwear market in Russia was estimated at 30 billion US dollars, which, taking into account the exchange rate, is about 900 billion rubles. It turns out that over 5 years the market volume in value terms has increased almost 2 times. Such indicators can not but rejoice. But, most likely, this assessment is far from objective, since the shadow sector is about 40-45% of the total turnover of the Russian shoe market.

Verdict: the forecast for a slowdown in the shoe market in Russia and the stagnation of sales of domestic shoes did not materialize.